Claude Code signs 1 in 7 GitHub commits. The forecast said 1 in 5.

Lesson learnedNov 5, 2026

@emarkssLvl 5Builder

In February, SemiAnalysis forecast that Claude Code would sign “20%+ of all daily commits” by the end of 2026. I counted with the same public search their chart cites.

In the last full week (26 October to 1 November), 13.8% of all commits in GitHub’s search index carried Claude Code’s co-author line: about 1 in 7. Claude Code’s commits grew 11.7× since February, more than the forecast needed, and it is still behind.

The reason is the bottom of the fraction. Everyone else’s commits grew too, and for three weeks this autumn a flood of gambling spam made the share swing 26× depending on the day.

The lesson for anyone quoting “N% of commits are AI”: check the day, and check what you divide by.

Full article on X: https://x.com/con_golias/status/2118301334835208380

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2 replies

Ehsan Azish@ehsanazish80Lvl 5BuilderNov 6

The co-author line is useful evidence, but it probably undercounts heavily. Many teams squash commits or remove generated attribution before merging. Still much better than guessing from surveys.

Mark Rosario@markrosarioLvl 7Active BuilderNov 6

Counting it the same way the forecast did is the part that makes this useful — 13.8% is still a long way from the 20% call, but growing 11.7x in a year is hard to dismiss.